The coronavirus Truth ruse as we call them have taken up this line about the virus. Oh no actually you know I know that the obituary pages are full and no one could buy a sympathy card but it’s not that deadly dangerous. Even as the death toll in America continues to climb past 60,000. 2,000 new deaths a day day after day after day. And every day brings new evidence of how absurd those very claims are. So the New York Times citing CDC data now reports that the U.S. the death toll is actually far higher than what’s been reported. Now people of course in America and everywhere they die have all sorts of things every day in this country flewed cancer or heart attacks homicides driving accidents suicide. And states and cities collect all that data called all cause mortality right to calculate the total number of deaths. So one way is one way we can get a sense of how hard states have been hit by deaths from the corona virus is just by looking at those current overall mortality tolls. And comparing it to the same period of time. Say last year that’s exactly what The Times did and lo and behold they found excess deaths everywhere they looked. Now some of them were positively reported coronavirus deaths and others many others were not though they were likely due to the virus. But each state they looked at has a huge spike. And crucially it is even bigger than what you would see if you just took into account the reported coronavirus deaths right. All cause mortality found that global coronavirus deaths could be 60 percent higher than reported. The death rate in Belgium for instance is 60% higher than the historical average this time of year. In Spain it is more than 50% higher than average this time here. In hard-hit Italy the death rate is 90% higher than in years past. We are seeing this everywhere.
And it’s gillis tration of why coronavirus truther ism is not just so dangerous but also so deranged I’m joined now by dr. George Q Daley the Dean of Harvard Medical School co-wrote an opinion piece in The Washington Post urging Americans to beware of studies claiming Covid 19 death rates are smaller than expected. And maybe we can start dr. Sort of in the broadest possible way which is in terms of two months ago well how scientists were dealing with his new virus and how deadly they thought this was. And two months later after the ravages, how did those sort of expectations and the data line up. Well I think based on what we knew two months ago we knew this was a highly contagious virus. And the early results out of China suggested that a shockingly large percentage of infected patients were dying. Maybe as much as 3%, maybe 6%. And now two months later we realize that some of the hotspots Italy, New York City and beyond have suffered a just astounding burden of death. Now we don’t know the underlying complete percentage of individuals who’ve seen the virus. And that’s why these recent surveys are allowing us to reassess the actual case mortality rate. But even as we’ve reassessed it down because we appreciate that many more people have actually seen the virus than are being counted. The rates are still quite staggering. The burden is very great. This point is a really crucial one so that this sort of sets up this debate right now. And it sort of mixes together a good faith debate among experts and the data and a sort of bad faith attempt I think to do some sort of bait and switch. So the good faith version of this is we know how many cases there are that are confirmed. We don’t know how many people have been in it, which is a much larger number. And if the multiple is big enough if it’s actually a hundred times what we know of the actual cases then actually the disease is not as deadly as we thought. You’re arguing that the idea is the bullish case that like everybody’s had it and it’s a hundred times. It’s just not really being borne out by what we know. Is that sort of the argument here? Yeah this is what I am deeply deeply and profoundly concerned about is the over interpretation that some of these early studies suggest that maybe ten fold or even in some reports eighty fold as many people have actually seen the virus. That this is being used to suggest oh this is not a devastatingly fatal or virulent disease. But let’s anchor it on what we see. In the major cities that have been hit whether it’s in the north of Italy, or Wuhan China, or New York City. Our intensive care units have been overwhelmed with viruses. Even in the worst flu years we don’t see this rapidity of death we don’t see the bodies piling up in wards that can’t handle them. This is far worse than the flu and we have to be careful as we interpret these early assessments of the percent of people in our communities that have seen the virus. We have to be careful that we don’t reopen the economy too early because we will provoke a second wave of epidemic. We will provoke an increased number of infections. And behind it we will see the deaths.